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| Nieuwe Oorlog 2002 / 'State of the Union'-dossier |
President Bush has earned the praise of America but not the trust of the world Leader
The Independent
31 January 2002State of the Union addresses are invariably upbeat and assertive affairs, and
the first to be delivered by George Bush was no exception. Buoyed by military
success and his unprecedented personal popularity, the President used America's
annual political setpiece to enunciate a "Bush Doctrine" to deal with terrorists
and with states that seek weapons of mass destruction. His forthright views will
play well at home. But many outside America are likely to find them distinctly
disturbing.As always on such occasions, the style counted at least as much as the
substance. Mr Bush was blunt and unmistakably unilateralist. He evoked an "axis
of evil" consisting of Iraq, Iran and North Korea. After the traumatic events of
11 September, the United States is in no mood to mess around. It will not wait
on events, and there will be no escape from its justice. If more timid
governments do not act, "then America will" - alone, if necessary.
Apart from a nod in the direction of Pakistan and its President, Pervez
Musharraf, there was barely a mention of the "coalition" of which our own Mr
Blair once made so much. Mr Bush has embraced the Washington hawks' view of the
universe. This was not a speech written by the State Department or by Colin
Powell.Few people would now bet against some form of showdown with Saddam Hussein
within the next 12 months. More surprisingly, Mr Bush also chose to overlook the
positive developments of late in America's fraught relationship with Iran,
including Tehran's benign neutrality in Afghanistan.
Of the Middle East there was not a mention: no acknowledgement of the rising
death toll among civilians, no hint of a new initiative to try to quell the
violence in the region and re-start negotiations towards a settlement. Like it
or not, however, the permanent and worsening crisis between Israel and the
Palestinians is one reason why those "tens of thousands" of Afghan-trained
terrorists still at large continue to have America in their sights.
Of course, the harsh language has an element of bluff, reflecting the
calculation that, after the show of American might in Afghanistan, the mere
threat of force will be enough to make some countries have second thoughts about
harbouring or sponsoring terrorism. It will be noted, too, that America's
overwhelming military strength is about to grow greater still. Mr Bush is asking
for a $48bn (£34bn) increase in the Pentagon budget for fiscal 2003. If the
increase is approved (and there is little reason to suppose it will not be) US
defence spending, it has been estimated, will equal the 15 next largest national
military budgets combined.At home, for all his new poise and the impressive fashion in which he has grown
into his job since 11 September, Mr Bush's domestic prospects are far from
clear. The bitter experience of his father in 1992 shows how difficult it can be
for an American president to convert political capital accumulated on the
battlefield into the advancement of domestic policy. The Enron scandal, with its
links to his administration, might get worse, while economic recession has
overtaken terrorism as the main worry of ordinary voters.
But unlike most of its predecessors, this State of the Union address will have
its greatest impact abroad. The most vital issue in the contemporary world is
how America, whose global hegemony is perhaps unmatched by any single state
since ancient Rome, chooses to use its power. America is already envied and
disliked because of its domination. The danger is that Mr Bush's speech, with
its simple certainties and pronounced unilateralist flavour, will merely fuel
that resentment further.