Bush meets Crown Prince in diplomatic minefield

The Times
April 25, 2002
By Bronmen Maddox

So, tell us about the Saudi hijackers. And then tell us why your Ambassador in London penned a poem of praise to suicide bombers. And then show some sign of how you plan to turn your economy to something other than pumping oil.

That might be George W. Bush's response today when he receives the inevitable lecture from Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on the Arab world's steady anger and fear about the Middle East bloodshed.

It is not that Bush should dismiss the points that the Crown Prince will make, as the Saudi Arabian ruler arrives at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, straight from his holiday in Casablanca.

The Prince is known for direct talking, and he will spell out, entirely accurately no doubt, the pressures on Saudi Arabia and others from supporting the US. The fear that popular fury with the US will topple the Saudi Arabian regime is one of the greatest threats to US interests, far eclipsing Afghanistan itself.

But even though there is still more that the US could do to quell the Middle Eastern violence, there are steps that the Arab regimes could take themselves, but continue to dodge. For a start, Saudi Arabia has failed to provide any information on the 15 hijackers on September 11 who appeared to be Saudi Arabians or to have passports from that country, out of the total of 19.

Nor has the kingdom said anything about how it plans to deter other potential terrorists. The US received quiet backing this week from Pakistan to pursue terrorists in the wild tribal lands that are barely under Islamabad's control. It has received nothing like that support from Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom has also done little since tentative discussion of new international gas contracts last summer to show that it intends to develop and broaden the economic base. That would help to soak up some of the 100,000 young men entering the workforce each year, as well as reverse the plummeting standard of living. That is, in the end, the only route that will improve the chances of survival of a Western-friendly regime. But in return for such points, Bush can expect an earful, in a week when he has already had a lecture from King Mohommed VI of Morocco. After all, Prince Abdullah comes with the support of several of his fellow regional leaders. His status was enormously enhanced in the region by his peace plan in February, which sketched out full diplomatic ties with Israel in return for withdrawal to pre-1967 boundaries.

It attracted increasing international excitement, before it was blown away by continued Palestinian suicide bombings and Israel's incursion into the West Bank.

Many in the Arab press have criticised this trip, but many have also pinned hope on it, seeing Prince Abdullah as perhaps the only emissary who might persuade Bush to be tougher on Israel.

It will put Bush in a difficult position. True, he can point to the failure of Colin Powell's recent mission as evidence that the US cannot do much to reduce the violence. He can also cite his tough Rose Garden speech that launched Powell on that trip. But the overwhelmingly pro-Israel tone of Congress - and the criticism at home of the Rose Garden speech - will make it hard for him to claim that the US position has changed much in the long term, or even that he can be as severe in tone towards Israel as his father.

The best he can aim for is to reassert that the US remains engaged in the Middle East, while reminding Prince Abdullah that not all the kingdom's problems can be laid at the US's door; most lie at home. Even if peace were miraculously to arrive in Israel and Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia's problems would still be there. The immediate inflammatory threat might have been removed, but the persistent threat from militants would not.

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