Iraqi dissidents discuss plans for a provisional government

Washington Post
August 30, 2002
By Daniel Williams

Encouraged by Washington's determination to overthrow Saddam Hussein, dissidents inside Iraq and in exile are discussing formation of a provisional government to take over in Baghdad.

The proposal will be one of the main topics at a conference of opposition groups to be held here or in another European capital as early as September, dissident leaders said today. Unanimity on how to proceed and who would head such a government is far from assured, however, with some groups opposing the idea outright.

Organizing opponents to the Hussein government is a key part of the Bush administration's efforts toward its announced goal of "regime change" in Iraq. At a minimum, the dissidents are trying to provide an Iraqi face to what, so far, has largely been projected as a U.S. undertaking. The State Department this week began training Iraqis to handle media relations.

Though some dissident groups have claimed U.S. support for the idea of a government in exile, State Department spokesman Richard A. Boucher said today that the United States is not currently pushing the proposal. "We're not at that point now," he told reporters at a briefing. "We're not at that point in terms of the future of Iraq generally to say it's time to create a government in exile."

The mood among opposition leaders has turned upbeat. Two months ago, the groups were fighting among themselves and in some cases with Bush administration agencies over money to fund anti-Hussein activities. They also perceived divisions in Washington over whether and how to overthrow the Iraqi leader.

In the view of top dissident leaders, all that changed this summer, with a meeting in Washington of senior U.S. officials and six representatives of opponents of Hussein.

A conversation with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, a video conference with Vice President Cheney and a visit from Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld convinced the six representatives that the administration was united in its quest to unseat the Iraqi ruler.

"This time we got the feeling that Washington means business. Everyone was speaking with one voice," said Ali bin Hussein, a self-described pretender to the defunct Iraqi throne and one of the participants.

"We were surprised," remarked Hamid Bayati, an official of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, an Iranian-based organization that claims to represent Iraq's majority Shiite Muslim population.

Also represented in Washington were the Iraqi National Congress (INC), the largest amalgam of opposition groups; the Iraqi National Accord, a group with ties to the CIA; and two regional organizations representing Iraqi Kurds.

Their message to Washington, whose sponsorship they have long coveted, is reassuring to U.S. officials: War would provoke an uprising within the military and among the masses against Saddam Hussein, easing his overthrow. The groups say they base their optimism on conversations with Iraqis who have left the country in recent months.

"No one will fight to support Saddam," said Tawfiq Yassiri, a former army general who revolted against Baghdad in the wake of the Persian Gulf War of 1991. "The uprising will happen."

The INC is organizing the opposition conference and says it expects its leader, Ahmad Chalabi, to be elected the leader of a unified opposition. Such a selection would give Chalabi a leg up in the contest to succeed Hussein, provided Washington sticks with him, associates said. He has been the subject of feuding between the Pentagon and State Department. The latter has long rejected him as a leader of Iraqi exiles.

Some dissident organizations oppose creation of an exile government at this stage. "It doesn't make sense right now," said Sami Abdul Rahman, an official of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, one of the Kurdish factions that operates in northern Iraq under protection of U.S. and British fighter jets.

Assessments vary on what the opposition can provide the United States. The INC has offered to gather intelligence inside Iraq, a program that is supposed to be funded by the Pentagon. So far, no money has been provided for such activity, officials say.

To demonstrate potential armed muscle, the INC has created a military council of former Iraqi army officers. The group is supposed to attract disillusioned officers inside Iraq. Once the United States begins military operations, the Iraqi soldiers would be encouraged to defect. "We believe that in the worst case, troops will simply stay in their barracks," said Ali bin Hussein, a member of the Iraqi royal family that was deposed in 1958.

Yassiri, the former general, argued that the bulk of Saddam Hussein's army would revolt, as many elements did after the Gulf War. The United States declined to give military support to the uprising then, however, and Hussein crushed it. "They are awaiting the moment, but this time, Washington must follow through," Yassiri said.

He argued further that the United States should not send ground forces into Iraq. It would be enough, he said, to bomb troops and communications centers.

With the help of a former Iraqi intelligence official, Saad Obaidy, Yassiri recently launched an ad hoc campaign to persuade Iraqi soldiers to revolt. Mutinous officers can sign up discreetly by e-mail on the INC Web site.

Yassiri also wants to recruit exile Iraqi troops to form the core of an exile army. For the moment, there are neither troops nor a place to train them. INC officials have been pressing the Bush administration to set up a training base on U.S. territory. "Arizona is something like Iraq," said Obaidy.

The Shiites say they have 50,000 men under arms in southern Iraq. The Kurds have another 50,000 in their autonomous region in the north. The Kurds fear that actively preparing to support a U.S. military move might provoke a preemptive attack from Hussein's central government forces. Nonetheless, U.S. military inspectors have surveyed one air base in northern Iraq for potential military use, Kurdish officials say.

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