Turkey's red lines vanish in northern Iraq

- Americans hold Kurds in high esteem as Kurdish leaders enter Governing Ccouncil and have say in how Iraq will be run

- Americans feel some Turkish rough elements and Iranians may wish to destabilize Kirkuk and are set to prevent this

- Turkmens do not want any outside interference in their affairs as they start to organize in Kirkuk and the environs of Mosul

Turkish Daily News
July 17, 2003
By Ilnur Cevik

A visit to northern Iraq and extensive interviews and discussions with its leaders show that the situation in northern Iraq has dramatically changed in favor of the Kurds while the red lines which Turkey established and threatened to go to war if they were violated have simply vanished after the war and the occupation of the country by the Americans.

The Americans faced with serious resistance in central Iraq and unable to introduce stability in most of the country seem to have decided that their best bet to start reorganizing and reconstructing Iraq could start from the Kurdish dominated areas in the north.

The area is swarming with U.S. experts and officials working in diverse areas like health, education and social programs.

Turkey had established some red lines and had warned the Iraqi Kurds and the Americans prior to the toppling of Saddam Hussein that if these were violated Ankara would see this as a reason for military intervention.

The first red line was the establishment of an independent Kurdish state. The second was the safety of the Turkmens living in Iraq and the third was the status of Kirkuk and Mosul. Last but not least Ankara said it would not tolerate giving its separatist Kurdish terrorists who are holed up in northern Iraq a free hand to resurrect their campaign against Turkey.

After the war the Kurds emerged as the most valuable and trusted ally of the Americans and there were even suggestions that the U.S., which always slanted towards Turkey in Turkish-Kurdish disputes, may change this attitude in favor of the Kurds.

The Americans gave Kurds five seats in the newly formed Iraqi Governing Council and asked Kurdistan Democracy Party leading official Hoshyar Zebari to play a key role in the formation and opening session of the Council. The Kurds will also have a representative in the Governing Council mission to be sent to the U.N.

This all means that while Turkey feared the Kurds will set up an independent state in the northern part of the country they are in fact a major player in Baghdad as a part of the newly shaping Iraqi administration which increases their future say in the way the country is being run.

So instead of the emergence of a Kurdish state it became clear that the Kurds consolidated the Talabani and Barzani administrations in the north while obtaining a dominant position in the Baghdad administration.

Regarding the red line of protecting the Turkmens against atrocities it was clear that this would never happen and those who claimed such scenarios were clearly embarrassed Before the war there were claims that Iraqi refugees would flood into Turkey from Iraq and that after the war the Kurds would attack the Turkmens and commit atrocities. A minority of the Turkmens lived in the north under Kurdish rule for the past 12 years (about 150-200,000) but the bulk lived in the regions controlled by Saddam Hussein especially around the Kirkuk and Mosul areas.

Ankara said the Kurds should not control these cities once Saddam's forces were pushed out and that the Americans should control them. Once the Iraqi forces retreated from Kirkuk and Mosul the Kurdish forces at first moved into these cities to prevent a power vacuum from developing. Later the Americans moved in and armed Kurdish elements withdrew. However, it is clear the Kurds do have a major say in the way these cities are run.

Touring these cities this reporter saw that while Arabs dominate Mosul and thus the governor became an Arab, Kirkuk is a city of Kurds and Turkmens and no side is really dominant. But despite this the Americans have given the administration of the city to a Kurdish governor who has strong links with the Turkmens. There were claims that the wife of the governor in fact is a Turkmen. The fact that the lone Turkmen represented in Iraq's Governing Council seems to be a concession to the Turkmen's of Kirkuk. Turkmens heavily populate the towns around Mosul and Kirkuk.

American officials speaking to the Turkish Daily news on condition of anonymity say the situation in Kirkuk is fragile and suspect that Turkish activists encouraged by Turkey and Iranians are trying to stir up trouble. They suspect Turkish military personnel are organizing Turkmens in the area for subversive activities.

That was behind the U.S. raids against the Turkish military liaison office in Suleymaniyah ordered by local commander Colonel Mayville where Turkish officers were arrested and taken to Baghdad. They were later released.

But since then Turkey and the sides have reached an agreement to better coordinate their activities in the region and also avoid frictions. However, American local commanders in northern Iraq feel the special Turkish forces in the area should tone down their activities and should not meddle in the affairs of the Turkmens.

Besides all this local Turkmens say they do not want any outside interference in their affairs that will give the impression that they are being manipulated by Ankara. They say they would welcome Turkey's help to assist them to organize and set up TV stations and publish newspapers. So the red lines seem to become more and more distorted these days while they vanish in various places.

Regarding the PKK neither the Barzani and Talabani administrations nor the Americans tolerate their presence in northern Iraq. However, the Americans do not want to use force immediately against the PKK to disarm its militants and is taking its time as Turkey debates a partial amnesty for them.

Both Kurdish leaders and American officials feel Turkey should phase out its military presence in northern Iraq while increase its economic and political presence and influence in the region. They say the Turkish Foreign Ministry could set up missions in various cities while Turkey floods the region with its goods and services.

 
_____
Nieuwe Oorlog 2003 | Ander Nieuws week 30-31