Syria dusts off maps of Golan Heights battlefields following Israeli attack

Brian Whitaker hears talk in Damascus of a strategy to put the focus on a dangerous area

The Guardian
November 10, 2003
By Brian Whitaker

They call it Shouting Valley - a remote spot in the Golan Heights where Syrians go to meet their relatives on the opposite side. Across the valley they can see each other and wave, but it is not easy to talk.

Those with strong voices shout, while others use loudhailers, because they are kept apart by coils of razor wire, a 300-metre minefield, and an electrified fence.

The Syrians on the other side - who nowadays number about 24,000 - have been living under Israeli occupation since 1967. Thousands more were driven out when Israeli forces swept through the hills, and now live in camps dotted around Syria where their numbers have swelled to more than 400,000.

For the past 36 years recovering the Golan Heights - 460 square miles of fertile volcanic soil stretching down to the Sea of Galilee - has been the prime goal of Syria's foreign policy, but keeping the issue in the spotlight has often proved difficult.

Since the collapse of peace talks between the late President Hafez al-Assad and the Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak in 2000, the Palestinian uprising has diverted attention; the current road map for peace, sponsored by the US, the EU, the UN and Russia, hints at an eventual Israeli-Syrian settlement almost as an afterthought.

But in the eyes of many Syrians - as well as foreign diplomats in Damascus - the Golan is back on the agenda again. The change came on October 5, when Israel bombed an apparently abandoned building 15 miles from Damascus which it said was a training centre for Palestinian militants.

President George Bush gave the attack his public blessing, saying that Israel had a right to defend itself - though there is still no evidence that the target had any real connection with the suicide bombing in Israel that prompted the raid.

The Israeli attack was seen by some as an attempt to put pressure on Damascus to expel Palestinian militants who, until now, have felt safe in Syria.

Others saw it as a knee-jerk response to the suicide bombing, perhaps directed at Syria because Israel had run out of significant targets in the West Bank and Gaza to lash out against.

Whatever Israel's reasons, the attack was a clear breach of the Golan Heights disengagement pact signed by Israel and Syria in 1974, which says that both sides "will scrupulously observe the ceasefire on land, sea and air and will refrain from all military actions against each other".

There are also few in Syria who believe that the attack will be the last. Israel has published a "Map of Terror" showing 17 potential targets around Damascus, including the alleged homes of senior figures in Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.

Syria responded to the raid by complaining to the UN security council - where its submission is now gathering dust - but all the signs are that it will react much more strongly to any future bombing.

"We'll not sit idle," the foreign minister, Farouk al-Sharaa, told a group of western journalists last month. "We'll act in a responsible, serious way."

What exactly this means is unclear, but the next day General Hassan Turkmani, the Syrian chief of staff, told troops to maintain the highest level of readiness in order to meet "aggressive adventures" by Israel. Almost nobody in Damascus expects Syria to meet Israeli-American demands by expelling Palestinian militants.

"The Palestinian cause is crucial to the ideology and legitimacy of the regime," one Arab journalist said.

Not giving way under pressure is an essential part of Syria's policy of "steadfastness", a western diplomat added. "They never give up a card - as they see it - unless someone is willing to pay."

The Palestinian militants' presence in Syria, these days, is largely token. Syrian officials say their offices are closed and their phones have been cut off, and foreigners based in Damascus generally agree that they are not very active. The leaders remain silent on Syrian soil, but travel to Beirut to issue public statements.

"Hamas and Jihad are Islamists," the Arab journalist said, highlighting Syria's long, and sometimes bloody, history of fighting religious extremism. "They will never be allowed to be active in Syria, even within the Palestinian refugee camps."

Syria's traditional response to pressure from Israel has been to turn up the heat on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Although Syria still has hegemony over Lebanon, times have changed and such a move would be unpopular with the Lebanese and give fuel to Syria's critics in the US.

A more likely Syrian strategy, some observers say, would focus attention directly on the occupied Golan Heights.

The Syrians have already tightened their air defences, according to diplomatic sources, and would almost certainly try to shoot down any incoming Israeli warplanes - although they would be unlikely to succeed.

Hinting at another possible course of action, Mr Sharaa said last week: "Don't forget there are [Israeli] settlements in the Golan."

Though it is doubtful that Syrian inhabitants of the Golan would be eager to attack them, and reap the consequences from Israeli forces, Syria could - as one diplomat put it - "extend Hizbullah's licence" further into the Golan.

At present Damascus keeps the Lebanese Hizbullah guerrillas on a tight leash, confining their attacks mainly to the Sheba'a Farms, a tiny corner of the Golan which is occupied by Israel but claimed by Lebanon.

A more dramatic move by Syria - which some diplomats think likely - would be to mass troops close to the Golan ceasefire line while staying within the letter of the disengagement agreement.

The rules allow only 6,000 soldiers and 75 tanks within 10km (6 miles), and 450 tanks within 20km, but beyond 20km there are no limitations.

Large-scale Syrian troop movements would force Israel to respond, at a time when its forces are tied up fighting the Palestinians. Israel recently announced a call-up of several hundred reservists to plug the gap that has been left by cuts in defence spending.

Calling up even more reservists to help defend the Golan would be unpopular with Israelis, especially if the measure had to be sustained for a long time, because it keeps them away from their normal jobs.

This, according to some assessments, is how Syria might drive Israel to the negotiating table, though the risks are high. A small miscalculation could bring disastrous consequences.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003

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