The Guardian
October 13, 2005
By Simon Tisdall

President Bashar Assad is not merely fighting to clear Syria's name as an unprecedented UN murder investigation closes in on Damascus. He is fighting for survival - his, and that of his isolated Ba'athist regime. And yesterday's death, from whatever cause, of his interior minister and adviser, Ghazi Kenaan, showed how high the stakes have become.

Pressure on Mr Assad is primarily from the US. In the latest of a series of increasingly hostile speeches, George Bush last week denounced Syria and its ally, Iran, as "outlaw regimes" conniving with "Islamo-fascist terrorists" to foment international instability. US anger focuses on Iraq in particular. Washington and Baghdad have repeatedly accused Mr Assad of directly or indirectly aiding Sunni insurgents and allowing foreign jihadists to transit his territory.

Flynt Leverett, a Syria specialist, suggested recently the US might extend military counter-terrorist operations into Syria itself with the parallel aim of further weakening Mr Assad. Such a move could ignite the regional conflagration al-Qaida seeks, and so far Washington has held back.

To Mr Assad's possible surprise, the US was not in the least placated by April's Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Backed by France, the former colonial power, and the UN security council, it is still pushing for an end to Syrian string-pulling in Lebanon and the disarming of pro-Syrian Hizbullah guerrillas. Likewise, it condemns Mr Assad's harbouring of militant Palestinian factions.

Washington has also leaned on the EU to freeze a planned association pact with Damascus, at least until the UN investigation into February's assassination of Rafiq Hariri is complete. American hardliners, convinced Mr Assad and his inner circle ordered the killing, outraged by his perceived meddling in Iraq, and aiming through him at Iran, want tougher action from Mr Bush. "It is doubtful that the backlash over Hariri's assassination will force Assad out. If we want to stop [him], we'll have to do it ourselves," said Max Boot of the US Council on Foreign Relations. "Bombing strikes, commando raids and increased support for dissidents may help to concentrate his mind."

Officially, the US is seeking "behaviour change", not regime change. But reports from Washington suggest the search is on for an Assad replacement - a military figure or even Mr Assad's exiled uncle, Rifaat Assad.

But Rifaat Assad has scant support within Syria, opposition parties are weak, and external groups are widely despised, said Rime Allaf of Chatham House. The US was also constrained by its realisation that Mr Assad's downfall could open the door to the Muslim Brotherhood an insurgency potentially merging with Iraq's, and possible civil war in Syria and Lebanon, she said. "Most Syrians fear the deep religious animosities and ethnic hatreds that could easily tear the country apart if the government falls," said Joshua Landis, who runs SyriaComment.com blog.

But Gen Kenaan's death, far from deflecting US pressure and UN investigators, may have brought such dread turmoil a step closer. "Many people will interpret it as an additional element showing Syria's involvement in Hariri's killing, and that the regime is very, very edgy," Ms Allaf said.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005

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