| Ander Nieuws week 34 / nieuwe oorlog 2006 |
Support for sending troops hits new low; Harper's Mideast policy also under fire
The Globe and Mail
16 August 2006
By Jeff Sallot
As Canadian casualty figures climb, public support drops for the military operation in Afghanistan, according to a new poll that suggests a 55-per-cent majority now oppose sending troops to that troubled country.
The minority Conservative government also seems to be out of step with the public mood on support for Israel in its war with Hezbollah. A plurality of 44 per cent of poll respondents said they disagree with Stephen Harper's support for Israel, while only 33 per cent said they agree with the Prime Minister.
Opposition to Mr. Harper's position on these two foreign policy issues is strongest in Quebec, a province he has been courting in the hope of building a national majority in the next election.
But even in the rest of the country, including the Conservative-dominated West, most Canadians clearly believe the Afghan mission is a mistake.
The poll by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV was conducted from Thursday through Sunday, a period in which Canadian news was dominated by a string of casualties suffered by the Canadian Forces in Afghanistan. A thousand Canadian adults responded to the poll, which should be accurate nationally within 3.1 percentage points.
"Afghanistan is one of the problem issues for the government. It is a point of vulnerability. It remains a nagging concern for Canadians," said the Strategic Counsel's Tim Woolstencroft.
Support for the Afghan mission has been sliding since March and is now at its lowest point. Mr. Harper paid a surprise visit to the troops in Afghanistan in early March. Polls just after that showed a 55-per-cent majority supporting sending troops. The numbers have now flipped, with 55 per cent saying they oppose the involvement and only 37 per cent saying they support the mission.
A follow-up question suggests that opposition to the Afghanistan policy is even stronger if people are reminded of the casualties. Asked if the lives of more than 20 Canadian soldiers was too high a price to pay to bring stability and peace to Afghanistan, 58 per cent said it was. Only 36 per cent said it is the price that must be paid. About 6 per cent didn't know or didn't answer.
Foreign policy issues rarely determine the outcome of Canadian elections, except in time of war, Mr. Woolstencroft said.
The more Canadians come to believe their country is involved in a war, the greater the chance the issue will become decisive in the minds of voters, the pollster said. This is likely if casualties climb.
But the Conservatives could turn opinion around with a concerted effort to sell the idea of the Afghan mission as being a multinational effort to help that country, Mr. Woolstencroft said.
Many people don't seem to understand Canada's involvement is part of a mission with a number of other countries from NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, he said, noting that Canadians tend to support peacekeeping missions conducted along with other countries.
The new poll indicates many Canadians don't know whether Mr. Harper has taken sides in the Israeli-Hezbollah war. About 52 per cent told the pollsters they didn't know or refused to answer when asked if they thought Ottawa is neutral. Another 13 per cent thought Mr. Harper was in fact taking a neutral stand while 35 per cent said the government was not neutral.
When told in a follow-up question that Mr. Harper "fully supports Israeli actions" in the conflict, 44 per cent said they disagreed with that policy. Only 33 per cent agreed.
There is little change in these numbers since the pollsters first asked the question in late July. Once again, Quebeckers are most likely to say they disagree with Mr. Harper's position -- 63 per cent disagreeing and only 12 per cent agreeing.
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Difference of opinion
Canadians across the country increasingly say they oppose sending Canadian troops to Afghanistan and believe the Conservative government is taking a lopsided stance on Israeli military action in Lebanon.
Do you support or oppose sending Canadian troops to Afghanistan?
Support: 37%
Oppose: 55%
Don't know: 8%
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Canadian casualties: Is this the price we have to pay to bring stability and peace to Afghanistan, or is the price too high?
Price we have to pay: 36%
Too high a price: 58%
Don't know: 6%
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Do you think the Canadian government's position on the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is a neutral one or is it supporting one side?
Neutral position: 13%
Supporting one side: 35%
Don't know: 52%
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Do you agree with Prime Minister Harper's support for Israeli actions?
Agree: 33%
Disagree: 44%
Neither agree or disagree: 17%
Don't know: 6%
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Source: The Strategic Counsel
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