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Tens of thousands of refugees are fleeing a vicious civil war that threatens to turn the key Arab peninsula state of Yemen into a terrorist stronghold and to suck the US into another sensitive conflict zone.
Daily Telegraph
10 Sep 2009
Richard Spencer in Dubai
The Yemeni government is to try to subdue a rebel Shia army in the north of the country. But its assault is meeting fierce resistance, with the Yemeni air force staging desperate forays to pound the rebels into submission.
International observers fear that even if the US, a long-term ally, can stay aloof, the conflict might be subsumed in a regional war by proxy.
Saudi Arabia helps to finance the government, partly out of fear of its own Shia minority and terrorist elements. The government accuses Iran, which is ruled by a Shia theocracy, of backing the rebels with money and arms, though it has produced no hard evidence.
The government launched a full-scale assault on the rebel stronghold in Saada province last month. Since then, 25,000 refugees have registered with the United Nations refugee agency, but diplomats say as many as 100,000 people may have been displaced by the fighting.
Whole villages are on the move, according to the World Food Programme (WFP), with thousands of people caught in a pocket between the fighting and the Saudi border.
About 35,000 have fled to Saada city, only to find themselves taking refuge in houses under constant shell fire.
"The situation is getting worse and worse and worse," said Gian Carlo Cirri, country director for the WFP. "We're not confronted with a humanitarian crisis, it's becoming a humanitarian tragedy."
One analyst warned that the United States might be forced to intervene as the security situation worsened to prevent Yemen becoming a "failed state".
The country has been used as an al-Qaeda base before, and its strategic location between the oil supply routes of the Gulf and the piracy haven of Somalia means its stability is regarded as a key western interest.
"It's very difficult," said Joost Hiltermann, of the International Crisis Group. "You might well see American advisers, maybe even some special troops, go in for special operations."
President Barack Obama sent a letter this week to President Ali Abdullah Saleh pledging to "stand beside Yemen, its unity, security and stability".
"The security of Yemen is vital for the security of the United States," he said.
Previously, the US had urged a return to the negotiating table.
Any American intervention would risk opening a new front in its hostile relationship with Iran, whose rise to power is increasingly feared by Gulf Arab countries, several of which also have Shia minorities.
The rebellion started as a minor conflict with a local tribe, the al-Houthis. But after its leader was killed in 2004, the insurrection, rather than disappearing, began to spread.
The al-Houthis are followers of a moderate Shia sect known as Zaidi, and their followers are now calling for the return of the so-called Zaidi caliphate which ran Yemen until 1962.
A ceasefire broke down earlier this year, leaving the government facing a double conflict against the Houthis in the north and al-Qaeda groupings throughout the country.
The Houthis were also accused of a string of kidnaps, including of a British engineer who is still being held.
Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world, and since reunification of its northern and southern halves in the nineties it has been mired in both tribal and sectarian strife.
The civil war in the north is also seen as distracting the government from political and economic reforms needed to lift it out of poverty.
Diplomats say there is little evidence of active Saudi and Iranian involvement in the fighting itself. One described a claim that Saudi aircraft had joined in the bombardment of Saada as "far-fetched".
But the diplomat added: "There's a long-term sense that Saudi Arabia and Iran play out their longer term rivalry in Yemen.
"Speculation about international intervention also takes away from the humanitarian issue, which is the most worrying aspect of the war."
© Copyright of Telegraph Media Group Limited 2009
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