Build that nation
Afghanistan's future remains at riskLeader
Tuesday January 22, 2002
The GuardianHamid Karzai's interim Afghan government is in a race against time that it could easily lose. This week's pledging conference in Tokyo has brought some welcome promises of swift international assistance that, if fulfilled, will exceed the initial $1.7bn needed this year.
The World Bank, the UN and the Asian Development Bank estimate that Afghanistan's humanitarian and reconstruction requirements may total $20bn over a decade. Whether that more ambitious target is met will depend on sustained political willpower long after the recent conflict fades from public consciousness. That is why the development minister, Clare Short, is right to stress the importance of multi-year pledges. Britain is to contribute $280m over five years, on top of its 20% share of the EU's $1bn package and the $84m it has donated bilaterally since September 11. This is generous by previous standards and an earnest, perhaps, of what Tony Blair in Bangalore meant about being a force for good in the world. The US, in contrast, while stumping up $296m, has declined to commit itself beyond the current fiscal year. This approach will inevitably raise questions about America's staying-power.
The Bush administration's attitude is but one of several factors that will determine whether Mr Karzai survives long enough to make good use of the money flowing from Tokyo. As previously noted, Afghanistan is primarily of interest to the US as a hunting ground for al-Qaida suspects.
The US refusal to join the British-led stabilisation force and its apparently escalating proxy war with Iran around Herat in the west bodes ill for future security. So, too, does its policy of bolstering local chiefs and warlords in its quest for terrorists at the expense of central authority. Factionalism, banditry and crime are reportedly on the rise in many parts of the country away from Kabul, especially in the Pashtun south. Next week George Bush may seek to parade Mr Karzai before Congress at his annual state of the union address. Blatant domestic political opportunism may be detected, too, in the degrading, vengeful circus sideshow at Guantanamo. Oblivious perhaps to the big picture, Mr Bush should be told that Afghanistan's much heralded democratic age has yet to dawn and money alone will not make it do so.
The attitude of Afghanistan's neighbours, now their expedient consensus on Taliban-toppling no longer binds them, also threatens hopes of rehabilitation. There are signs that not only Iran but Russia and Pakistan, too, may be reverting to their old influence-peddling ways. Meanwhile, at the purely human level, a refugee crisis is building again on the eastern border even as Pakistan talks of an enforced, mass repatriation. The World Bank estimates over 7m Afghans remain at risk of starvation, despite all recent efforts. Mr Karzai's government, unable to offer redress, could soon forfeit popular respect. If that happens, the Bonn process leading to a loya jirga and then elections may simply collapse. The money will be too late - and, in a way which Mr Bush seems totally unable to understand, the war will have been lost.
Acting in concert to help Mr Karzai's government to assert a genuine national authority; eschewing wasteful, high prestige bilateral aid deals; and empowering ordinary Afghans at all levels to start remaking their country by placing them, rather than the rich donor countries and their agencies, in charge of the process: these are the urgent priorities to which all who say they care must now apply their best, altruistic efforts. Time is short. After all, in only a couple of months, the Afghan fighting season reopens.
Guardian Unlimited (c) Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002