U.S. demands on Iraq may be tough to meet USA Today
February 27, 2002
By Barbara Slavin, USA TodayWASHINGTON - The Bush administration is expanding a list of items it wants barred for export to Iraq, but it expects such diplomatic efforts to fail and provide new ammunition for military action against the regime of Saddam Hussein, U.S. officials say.
The administration has concluded that Saddam will never satisfy United Nations resolutions, passed after the 1991 Gulf War, that require Iraq to disclose its chemical, biological, nuclear and long-range missile programs.
To give the impression of building the widest possible coalition against Iraq, U.S. officials are going through the motions of implementing U.N. agreements, the officials say. That includes making proposals that may be difficult for U.S. allies, as well as Iraq, to accept.
One element of this strategy involves "smart sanctions" proposed by the State Department last year to make it more difficult for Saddam to re-arm. Last June, Washington won agreement from three of the four other permanent members of the Security Council - Britain, France and China - on a "goods review list" of 100 items barred for export to Iraq because of potential military use. Russia has agreed in principle but has yet to accept a list.
U.S. officials say they are negotiating in good faith and are optimistic for agreement by the end of May, when the current system expires. But according to U.S. officials, more items are being added to the list, including types of fertilizer and trucks that can be used to transport tanks or heavy artillery. That expansion could make it harder for the Russians - and Iraq - to cooperate.
"In the interest of building the widest diplomatic coalition against Saddam Hussein, the administration is expanding the list of (banned) items and most probably will initiate some activity on the inspection front," says Raymond Tanter, a Middle East expert.
Official U.S. policy is to demand that Iraq admit U.N. weapons inspectors who have been absent from the country for more than three years. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is due to meet with Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri next week to press the issue.
But U.S. officials are skeptical that inspectors would be allowed to do their work and do not want to become ensnared in the sort of cat-and-mouse game that prevailed under the Clinton administration when Iraq barred inspectors from some sites and moved incriminating evidence. U.S. officials apparently intend to set the bar so high that Iraq will not comply. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that new inspections would have to be "much more intrusive."
It would involve "the Iraqis not controlling when they (the inspectors) come in, where they could go, what they could do. And the Iraqis aren't going to agree to something like that," Rumsfeld said.
Before resorting to military action, the administration wants to be able to say that it tried other options. Diplomatic efforts also provide time for the United States to prepare for military action.