Battle for Baghdad may lead to prolonged war The Times
October 18, 2002
By Michael Evans, Defence EditorA WAR with Iraq could develop into a stalemate unless there is a military coup against President Saddam Hussein or US-led forces are prepared to enter Baghdad and engage in urban warfare, a leading think-tank said yesterday.
A land war launched by America could last “ten minutes to ten months” depending on what happened once the US-led forces arrived at the gates of the Iraqi capital, Steven Simon, assistant director of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said. The institute gave its predictions of the way an invasion of Iraq might develop as it published its annual report on the world’s Armed Forces, The Military Balance.
Saddam’s Special Republican Guards, who protect the Iraqi leader in Baghdad, were trained in urban warfare and could prolong the fighting if they put up resistance, Christopher Langton, editor of The Military Balance, said. “The Special Republican Guard are experts in urban warfare and this will be a major factor for any invading force,” he said.
Military operations against Iraq could start as early as December, Mr Simon said, if Washington opted for a light strike force. There were already 60,000 US troops in the region, including two US Marine Amphibious Ready Groups, and the marines were best suited for street-fighting. However, a larger force of up to 250,000 troops would take months to build up.
The US had begun a campaign to persuade Iraqi generals to turn against Saddam. Leaflets telling local Iraqi commanders to disobey any orders to fire weapons armed with chemical or biological warheads were being dropped over Iraq, the institute said.
Mr Simon said that the implied threat of punitive action against any commanders resorting to such weapons was the main deterrent in American hands.
The potential threat of unconventional attacks, however, was clearly being taken seriously by the US because of the recent decision to inoculate its forces against smallpox. Similar steps were expected to protect American troops from anthrax and botulism.
Mr Langton said that the course of a war against Iraq would depend on Iraqi morale and loyalty towards Saddam, as a US-led force advanced towards Baghdad. If coalition troops took too long to get to the capital, it could lead to a “messy and lengthy campaign”.
John Chipman, director of the institute, said: “If a war does take place, it would be necessary for the US and its allies to do everything to reap the most enduring strategic benefits from what would be a unique and high-risk military assault.”