23-9-2022 Sommige analisten noemen de dreigementen van Poetin bluf en zeggen dat we er niet bang voor moeten zijn. Maar nucleaire dreigingen zijn altijd bluf, totdat ze dat niet meer zijn. En niemand weet waar de grens ligt tussen bluffen en uitvoeren. Daarom zijn deze nieuwe, meer agressieve dreigementen met kernwapens zo gevaarlijk.
De International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) schrijft:
Putin just issued his most aggressive threats to use nuclear weapons to date. In a speech delivered on 21 September 2022, Putin made new and more explicit threats to use nuclear weapons "in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people".
These threats are unacceptable, and need to be urgently condemned.
The nuclear threats come as Russia plans to hold illegitimate referendums in the areas it currently controls in Ukraine, to decide on their becoming part of Russia. If this goes ahead, Ukrainian military operations against Russian forces in these areas could then be interpreted as threats to the "territorial integrity" of Russia.
Some analysts are calling Putin's threats a bluff and that we shouldn't be scared of it. But nuclear threats are always a bluff until the day they aren't. And nobody knows where the line between bluffing and carrying out the threat will be. That's why these new, more aggressive threats to use nuclear weapons are so dangerous. They lower the threshold for nuclear use and greatly increase the risk of nuclear conflict and global catastrophe. We cannot normalize these threats and pretend it's not a big deal - it is extremely dangerous and irresponsible.
What can we do to stop this?
What is needed right now is a strong, global response from all parts of the world against these threats and nuclear use.
On Thursday 22 September, we expect several states to sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons - the only treaty that prohibits threats and use of nuclear weapons. This shows that the majority of states in the world believe these threats by Russia are unacceptable and illegal. This will be a great step for the world and we're working hard to make sure more follow.
But we also need to encourage states who have not yet joined the treaty to condemn these nuclear threats. At the first meeting of states parties of the TPNW in Vienna in June, the then 66 states parties condemned "unequivocally any and all nuclear threats, whether they be explicit or implicit and irrespective of the circumstances".
At the United Nations General Assembly this week, countries should issue a similar unequivocal condemnation, international organisations should speak out and warn about the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use, and people all over the world should demand that all governments speak out against nuclear threats and join the TPNW.
So we need your help to stigmatize and counter the normalization of these threats, so please help us spread the word through these resources.
Together, we can get the international community to strongly condemn this and delegitimize threats and use of nuclear weapons before catastrophe happens.